Ten weeks -- ten weeks from today puts us in mid-March. And by the time we reach mid-March, we shall have a good sense of the outcome of the GOP presidential primary. Predictions are always a hazardous undertaking yet their allure may be irresistible. So, here is my best judgment as to the way in which this strangest of all nominating contests is likely to play out.
Let's begin with the contenders. They are six in number, neatly divisible into two groups, the insurgents and the establishment candidates. Let's start with the insurgents.
Donald Trump has been at the top of most preference polls since the end of summer, 2015. The source of his appeal seems to the connection he has forged with Republican base voters. To be sure, a great part of his campaign is centered on racist and xenophobic themes and he rightly stands condemned for this toxic behavior. But there seems to be something more to his appeal also, and it suggests that his campaign might have staying power.
That "something more" is alienation. The Republican base feels itself alienated from larger American society. Much of this alienation is ideological. The base simply rejects many elements of contemporary society, from gay marriage to the Affordable Health Care Act. But the base's alienation is more profound than political disagreement with the ideals of mainstream society. Many base voters perceive, rightly or wrongly, that their economic status has grown less secure since the Great Recession of 2008. They see themselves as left behind, facing a stagnant present and a bleak future.
The rise of an alternative conservative media has only heightened this sense of estrangement. Take a look at Breitbart sometime, or at Newsmax. Yes, their writing is sophomoric, and their "news coverage" distorted. But their goal is not an unbiased presentation of events but the capture of market share. They want to be the news providers to the Republican base.
Long before there was a Donald Trump, the coverage of public affairs in this alternative media created an environment in which Trump's message could find an enduring home. Trump's new advertising campaign seems designed especially to appeal to the alienated consumers of alternative news. He is reinforcing his message in a way designed to keep his campaign strong going forward.
But will Trump's campaign be strong enough to prevail as the standard-bearer of the insurgent right? To answer that question, we must consider Ted Cruz and Ben Carson. Senator Cruz is the insider who most closely captures the alienation of the Republican base. He is a fine lawyer, who has argued before the United States Supreme Court. He is a sitting United States Senator. But he has built his career not on legislative accomplishment, nor on social problems solved, or on deadlocks averted.
No, he has risen to his standing in the polls on the basis of obstructionism and manufactured crisis. He has condemned his own Party's leadership and has, at the slightest provocation, called for the de-funding of the government. To someone outside the right-wing fever swamps, this conduct appears to be folly, but again, to an alienated base he comes across as authentic.
But Cruz' support extends beyond a disaffected hard core right wing. He also appeals to conservative evangelicals. An important key to whatever success he enjoys in the next two months is David Barton, who heads one of his superpacs. Barton is a self-styled historian whose book "The Jefferson Lies" was withdrawn from publication for its many misstatements. Still, Barton is an influential figure in conservative circles, and through Barton, Cruz can appeal to voting groups that Donald Trump would find unreachable.
The final candidate of note is Ben Carson. His star has faded nationally, but he has two important assets that can serve him well still: money in his campaign coffers and the support of many home-schoolers, nationwide but especially in Iowa.
These three contenders face off against three establishment candidates. Superficially, Marco Rubio might be the strongest candidate, but Rubio has problems that his opponents are beginning to exploit. He comes across as insincere. Furthermore, serious questions about his ethics are now being asked. There are, in other words, obstacles to a potential Rubio nomination that may or may not be successfully surmounted.
That leaves Chris Christie and Jeb Bush. Christie has stage presence. He speaks forcefully and articulately, and he seems able simultaneously to appeal to an old-fashioned "law-and-order" conservatism and to more moderate voices in his Party. Jeb, on the other hand, seems to have little going for him, aside from privileged birth, name recognition, and a large supply of cash he raised thanks to his family and party connections.
So, let's get down to predictions. The Iowa caucus occurs on February 1. The current consensus is that the top two finishers will be Ted Cruz and Donald Trump, in that order. If Trump wins, look for him to generate substantial momentum, since no one is expecting a first-place finish. A Cruz win is expected and so will not generate nearly the same excitement.
The race will then be for third place in Iowa. Can one of the establishment figures finish ahead of Ben Carson? If someone does, he will pick up momentum going into New Hampshire. If it is Marco Rubio, that momentum may be particularly strong since many in the media seem ready to anoint Rubio as the natural alternative to Trump/Cruz.
The New Hampshire primary occurs eight days later, on February 9. The polling, which is mostly stale, suggests that Trump is the comfortable front-runner with a group of three or four closely-bunched contenders vying for second place. New Hampshire will either magnify or blunt momentum. If Trump manages a victory in Iowa, he will sweep New Hampshire. Still, the establishment candidates might show unexpected strength. Chris Christie, in particular, might be poised for an upset win.
The race then moves to the South. The South Carolina primary occurs on February 20. Again, the polls have Trump and Cruz running first and second. Cruz is counting on a strong showing by evangelicals and Trump is relying on a surging turnout by non-traditional primary voters. I'll predict a narrow Cruz victory. Cruz has been organizing the state for months and his voters are nearly certain to appear at the polls. The same cannot be said for Trump's potential pool of support.
The Nevada caucus occurs on February 23 and has the potential to create a surprise. A hard-right candidate like Cruz or Trump could fare well in the Silver State, but so might someone like Rubio. But whatever happens in Nevada, it will soon be engulfed by Super Tuesday on March 1, which promises to be equal parts circus, Super Bowl, and Mardi Gras.
On that day, there will be primaries in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Massachusetts, and Vermont; caucuses will occur in Alaska, Minnesota, Kansas, and Kentucky. Too many states, too many different demographics for one candidate to run the table. Still, given its southern center of gravity, Super Tuesday's outcome will likely leave Cruz and Trump as the two most viable contenders. And after Super Tuesday, it will be a slow, steady, grinding war of attrition for the nomination.
The establishment will be too fractured to challenge Cruz/Trump seriously. Even now, it consistently trails in the polls. I foresee Cruz winning the war of attrition. He will be the nominee because he is the more disciplined candidate, with a superior organization.
Still, there are wild cards that could influence the outcome. Events in January will have a disproportionate impact on the race. Let the stock market sell off by five or seven percent (a perfectly normal, mild correction) and the doom-sayers in the popular business press will be pronouncing the end of days. This can only assist Trump. Similarly, if tensions continue to rise in the Middle East, Trump's candidacy is benefited.
A second key wild card are the January debates. Trump and Cruz's positions are probably set, but the debates will likely play a significant role in determining who emerges as the establishment's standard bearer. As the number of debaters get winnowed to six, I expect Christie to make the most favorable impression.
The race will nevertheless likely come to the following questions: Will Donald Trump's popularity with the base and with occasional voters translate into sustained support at the polls? Will Ted Cruz' organizational strength, his self-discipline, and his reliance on religious right voters propel to him a first-place finish? I have been clear in my opposition to both of these candidates. I am loathe to concede it, but this seems like the most probable scenario with Cruz prevailing for the nomination. And so I fear for the health of the Republic.
Cross-posted: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/charles-j-reid-jr/predicting-the-gop-presid_b_8918454.html
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